THE GROFF/ELLISON POLITICAL REPORT

Is It His Moment?

Posted in Uncategorized by groffellison on November 3, 2008

On that bitterly cold Saturday morning in February of 2007 it seemed like such a long shot, but as the air turns cold in November of 2008 it seems likely. 

The amazing presidential campaign journey of Sen. Barack Obama could end in 48 hours with his election as the 44th President of the United States or it could end with him falling painfully short of the 270 electoral votes needed for victory.  The history of the former scenario is obvious but the history of the latter is no less important. 

We have no idea how accurate the polls are this year but Obama has transformed the road to the presidency for all those who are eager to jump on the path in future.  From running a legitimate 50 state campaign to raising ridiculous amounts of cash Obama has shown how a relative political outsider can create a grassroots campaign that takes down political fiefdoms. 

Political scholars and campaign consultants will forever study and copy this campaign but there is one question left will he win on Tuesday?

Despite the 50 state effort and tons of cash this race comes down to a handful of states — Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina and maybe Indiana, Montana and Georgia.  OK, maybe two handfuls of states. 

Many of us thought the race would be won by capturing the Rocky Mountain West but by the time our polls close here in the West the race could be over.  If Obama takes some combination of Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina or Missouri the west, where Obama is leading, will be icing on the proverbial cake.  But if Sen. John McCain mounts a comeback in those states, all won by President George W. Bush four years ago, then it will be game on in the West and Pennslyvainia will be must win for Obama. 

While the polls have narrowed as they traditionally do McCain still faces an uphill struggle and Obama has maintained and even increased his national lead.  Assuming the polls are correct when all the votes are counted Obama may have a narrow popular vote win and a potential electoral vote blowout. 

However in an election year where so many people have voted early, African Americans are voting in historic numbers, young people continue to threaten to vote in massive numbers, there is an unpopular war, a near financial collapse and where there is an African American male heading a major party ticket the uniqueness of this race is hard to gauge. 

But at seemingly every critical moment of this race Obama has responded to the challenge and with the ultimate challenge set for Tuesday it is hard to say it is not his moment.

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