THE GROFF/ELLISON POLITICAL REPORT

A Backlash on 11/4

Posted in Uncategorized by groffellison on October 24, 2008

Good news is that we’re finding quite a significant surge in early voting.  Generally speaking: Americans appear to be, for a change, actually exercising their most basic constitutional right.  It was looking kind of bad – as far as global image – with us “spreading democracy,” yet less than half of us voting in our own elections.  Didn’t make a lot of sense.  This cycle, we find the enthusiasm a bit infectious.  Regardless of party affiliation, heavy participation on any level is a good thing. 

The early voting thing is all the rage.  Everybody is doing it.  It’s reached that point where Nov. 4th is merely a deadline.  And, folks who otherwise would have found mad reason to stay home or go straight to work now have no excuse. 

And, according to Associated Press, Black turnout in early voting is huge:

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) _ Blacks are already surging to the polls in parts of the South, according to initial figures from states that encourage early voting – a striking though still preliminary sign of how strongly they will turn out nationwide for Barack Obama in his campaign to become the first African-American president.

There have been predictions all year of a record black turnout for Obama. The first actual figures suggest that wasn’t just talk.  

This is found on Jonathan Martin’s Politico blog following GOP developments, prefaced by him writing: “This last fact is striking.”  What’s also striking is that Martin finds a moment to point out Black turnout – more than likely for Obama – on a blog dedicated to GOP political news.  Which leads us to an important question:

Could reports of huge Black turnout during early voting (especially in southern states) cause a backlash on Nov. 4th?  Meaning: could such reports actually fire up the GOP base, and possibly lure Independents and Reagan Democrat White voters who may be offended by this surging brick wall of Black support for Barack Obama? Particularly since their are many out there who (wrongly) assume that the majority of African Americans are simply voting for Obama because he looks like them … forgetting that it took a long minute before the majority of Black voters shifted support (en masse) from Hillary Clinton to Obama during the long Democratic primary.

It’s not a farfetched question.  But, as with the recently questionable AP poll showing a dead heat between Obama/McCain, we are going to find numerous attempts by certain media outlets to subtly influence popular vote counts and electoral college results.

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One Response

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  1. lunchcountersitin said, on November 1, 2008 at 5:18 am

    For the past two or three decades at least, the black voting rate has been less than the white voting rate.

    If this election sees a situation where blacks and whites vote at the same rate, I’m OK with that, no matter what the result.

    I suspect that if there is a “backlash” effect, it will be in the deep South… where Obama is not going to win anyway.


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