THE GROFF/ELLISON POLITICAL REPORT

Not Feeling the “Bradley Effect” …

Posted in Uncategorized by groffellison on October 22, 2008

As November 4th nears, the racial tone of the race gets hotter, the decibels flow higher.  Some of it is media sensationalism, much of it the sensitivity of the citizenry.  Hence, since the larger electorate isn’t as politically savvy as it should be and since campaigns are less about issues and more about horse race, the creation of the “buzzword” and “sound bite.”   This  burns us to no end, but it’s the reality of American politics.

There are many folks out there who are loosely throwing buzz words into the public sphere and daily conversation just because it sounds good or “intelligent” to do that.  Some folks like the drama, or feed into it.  But, it’s not all that deep sometimes.  We here, on the daily, a lot of Black peeps who keep worrying over the “Bradley Effect” – much of that drawn from the DNA of our cultural cynicism after 400 years in this joint.  There are many who would like to believe (or are simply engineering an explanation or rationalization if Obama loses on Nov. 4th) that there are a bunch of White voters out there who are plotting to do an electoral okie doke – trip up pollsters, get us hype then do the opposite at the voting booth.

We’re not feeling this for some reason.

For one, what’s up with applying old school concepts to new school paradigm shifts?  It appears we’ve passed that point where everything conventional about American politics is now unconventional.  Two: the racial code wording is driving us up the wall: Joe the Plumber, Joe Six Pack, Hockey Moms, “Real America”, “Bradley Effect” – enough of that.  But, three, as Nate Silver gets into it on FiveThirtyEight.com:

With so many “X factors” like race, cell phones and turnout, there is probably an extra margin of error this year. And polls aren’t terrifically accurate to begin with. But there is no reason to conclude that the polls are systematically overestimating Obama’s support; the reverse is at least as likely to be true. McCain, in all likelihood, will need to win this election fair and square—which means that he has his work cut out for him.

Thus, keeping it real.  Basically, folks need to drop the “Bradley” buzz and simply make certain they and everyone they know who is eligible go vote.

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