THE GROFF/ELLISON POLITICAL REPORT

On the hype called political polling …

Posted in Uncategorized by groffellison on August 27, 2008

We’re hoping at some point, perhaps upon serious examination in the post-mortem election analysis, somebody will poll the pollsters.  Much stock is put into polling, and we roll the numbers off like casino dealers, the fast-talking horse-race announcers parsing the latest figures.  But, we never ask that fundamental question: where and who are these cats polling?

Hence, the need for some sort of quality assurance check on those infamous polls.  To date, we – personally – have never received that call.  Yet, we suspect a predominant share of our White neighbors, co-workers and colleagues get that call all the time.  It’s slick how major cable networks fail to regularly get into an analysis of where this polling data is coming from, since they frequently cite them for certainty.  We catch that.

Recent polls suggest a deadlock between the two Presidential candidates, with several percentage points shaved off the Democratic nominee’s numbers.  It makes good copy and headline to suggest that the race me be tighter than any seen before, we get that.  This also fueling the ongoing speculation that half of Sen. Clinton’s primary voters (a vast amount of them disgruntled White women) are either undecided or steady on voting for Sen. McCain.  But, what we don’t get is why newer and younger voters fail to get polled, driving our suspicion that these polls might not be as tight as media sources claim.

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