THE GROFF/ELLISON POLITICAL REPORT

Is Obama Gore?

Posted in Uncategorized by groffellison on June 19, 2008

It has only happened twice in our nation’s history and only once in the last 100 years but it could happen in November.  What is it? The winner of the electoral college not also winning the popular vote. 

In the 2000 election Vice President Al Gore won the popular vote by over half a million votes but lost the electoral college vote to then Goovernor George W. Bush by a disputed 5 votes.  The last time that happened was in 1888 when Benjamin Harrison won the electoral vote but lost the popular count to Grover Cleveland by close to 100,000 votes. 

Some political pundits see some potential for that electoral anomoly to occur in 2008.  In an insightful article in the Politico Harry Seigel says that with the potential for record African American turnout in the south, but maybe not high enough for Sen. Barack Obama to win southern states, the mix for the “Gore/Cleveland” scenario is possible says Seigel, “…Obama racks up huge margins among the increasingly affluent, highly educated and liberal coastal states, while a significant increase in turnout among black voters allows him to compete — but not to win — in the South. Meanwhile, McCain wins solidly Republican states such as Texas and Georgia by significantly smaller margins than Bush’s in 2004 and ekes out narrow victories in places such as North Carolina, which Bush won by 12 points but Rasmussen presently shows as a tossup, and Indiana, which Bush won by 21 points but McCain presently leads by just 11.”  

There was a great deal of discussion after the 2000 election about the electoral college, but the disputed Florida result and subsequent Supreme Court decision overshadowed that talk about an overhaul of the process.  If that split happens again for the second time in eight years we wonder if the conversation will occur again and what may result from it. 

Of course there is the possible scenario the late NBC political moderator Tim Russert was pushing, a 269-269 electoral tie.  Now that would be interesting…

 

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