THE GROFF/ELLISON POLITICAL REPORT

Turning Point Tuesday…Or Not

Posted in Uncategorized by groffellison on May 20, 2008

Today the long Democratic primary contest winds into Kentucky and Oregon.  Senators Obama and Clinton will probably split the two — Obama in Oregon and Clinton in Kentucky — but the question is what if anything will tonight decide in this historic race. 

The Obama campaign will celebrate in Iowa — a swing state that launched him January — and continue his shadow boxing with presumptive GOP nominee Sen. John McCain.  After winning in North Carolina and coming within a point and a half in Indiana a  couple of weeks ago Obama has increasing turned his attention to McCain and fall and vice versa. 

But Clinton says not so fast my friend.  She has continued to campaign at a hectic pace and has said she will not drop out of the race until everyone has had a chance to vote.   That qualifying word –until– seems to indicate that she may call it quits after June 3rd which is the last day of the primary contests…or not. 

She is coming off a 42 point win in West Virginia and may add a 20 to 30 point win tonight in Kentucky, but she’ll probably lose Oregon and the combination of delegates Obama will win tonight in both states will earn him a majority of the pledged delegates in this contest.  It is one more milestone that Obama can celebrate and Clinton will have to spin. 

The questions after tonight will be how many more superdelegates will move Obama’s way and how many will be big names? How will Clinton handle the increasing pressure from party leaders, Obama supporters, the media and her own supporters to call it quits?  How will Obama explain away two big losses in swing states? and the new constant Obama question does he have a problem with poor white blue collar voters?

Those are the questions as Kentucky and Oregon head to the polls, or in Orgeon to the mailbox as Oregon is all mail, as the Democratic primary trundles on.  

Whatever happens tonight the stories and spin will be dampened by the news of Sen. Ted Kennedy’s brain tumor.          

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