THE GROFF/ELLISON POLITICAL REPORT

Rove “Likes” Clinton’s Map

Posted in Uncategorized by groffellison on May 20, 2008

Even though many people think the Democratic nomination race is all but over and Sen. Barack Obama is the victor, former adviser to President George W. Bush says he thinks Sen. Hillary Clinton’s electoral map is stronger than Obama’s .

Karl Rove’s consulting firm has created electoral map scenarios for both a Sen. John McCain and Clinton match up and a McCain and Obama face off by averaging recent public opinion polls.  The map and sources are not the most scienctific  ways to predict the November election but is an interesting glimpse about what could happen. 

Rove’s maps have Clinton winning Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio with toss up states across the center of the country including Iowa, Minnesota and Michigan.  He also thinks New Mexico in a McCain/Clinton showdown would be up for grabs.  Under this scenario Clinton holds a 259-206 (with 73 votes outstanding) margin. 

The Obama/McCain map has the Arizona Republican leading slightly with a 238-221 advantage with 79 votes in the undecided category.  The toss up states in this race are New Mexico, Colorado, Nebraska, North Dakota, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio and Virginia.  

According to Rove’s work Obama would win Pennsylvania but loss Florida, New Hampshire, West Virginia and Arkansas, which Clinton would presumably win under “Rovian” math. 

Each map backs up to a degree what each Democratic candidate has been saying, that each would change the electoral map and make the party competitive in areas where the most recent nominees have struggled.  It would also give some credence to DNC chairman Howard Dean’s 50 state push to make the party a national force. 

While the map is unscientific it does give us a look at where the battlegrounds may be and how close this election could be.     

 

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