THE GROFF/ELLISON POLITICAL REPORT

Obama’s Math May Add Up in Oregon

Posted in Uncategorized by groffellison on May 19, 2008

You may notice a broader then normal smile on the face of Sen. Barack Obama Tuesday night if the front running Democratic contender wins the Oregon primary. 

Why you ask? Because an Oregon win, coupled with the delegates he’ll receive from Kentucky, will most likely give Obama a majority of the pledged delegates.  According to the Obama website and campaign spokespeople for the junior Senator from Illinois he is within 15.5 delegates from reaching that other magic number-the majority of pledged delegates.   

The milestone is so significant that Obama and his wife will hold a rally in Des Monies, Iowa on Tuesday night. The location is obvious, Iowa is a swing state that started Obama on this improbable journey that may end in Denver with him being nominated for President of the United States. 

It will be interesting to see if superdelegates begin to flow toward Obama in a faster manner once he crosses this important threshold.  The Obama site also has him with 1909 delegates meaning that he is within 116 delegates from capturing the nomination outright. Counting Tuesday’s contest, there are five races left and total of 189 delegates remaining to be chosen so the question will also be how close can Obama get to the nomination number of 2025?

Tuesday may also be a pivot point for Sen. Hillary Clinton as well.  While her campaign may disagree with the delegate count, though her website is absent of any delegate numbers, they will have deal with another round of questions about how “can Clinton win the nomination?” and if “her persistence is hurting the party and Obama?”

Despite all the questions for both Obama and Clinton as we move forward, the numbers on Tuesday will show that Obama has crested another nomination milestone that Clinton can’t deny. 

 

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