THE GROFF/ELLISON POLITICAL REPORT

What Does it Mean?

Posted in Uncategorized by groffellison on May 14, 2008

Clinton tonight in West VirginiaThe second polls closed tonight in West Virgina the cable news networks immediately projected Sen. Hillary Clinton as the winner and the victory by at least a two to one margin. 

But what does the win mean? 

The Clinton campaign went on the airwaves and said it was a major victory that could change the race, but they struggled to say how.  With a three to one win tonight, and three to one wins in the final five contests and winning three-quarters of the unpledged superdelegates she’ll catch and surpass Sen. Barack Obama and nab the nomination. 

But that ain’t going happen, is it? 

Obama will probably win Oregon, Montana and South Dakota and may win Puerto Rico.  Clinton will win Kentucky, probably by a West Virginia like margin, but being at least $20 million dollars in debt and in a bad math problem her hope is for a Obama implosion or for a superdelegate result reversal. 

In her “victory” remarks she started by asking for money and begging to count the votes in Michigan and Florida and said that she would plow forward to show she was “the strongest candidate” to lead the party to victory.  The problem is the math won’t work and debt is too high for the Clinton campaign to win nomination without some outside action. 

There are five contest left, only 201 pledged delegates remaining and only 240 unannounced superdelegates left before the race ends on June 3rd.  Those are the hard facts, the hard numbers and the hard truth. 

So what does tonight mean?      

 

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